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Wednesday, 15 November 2006 |
Housing sales set to drop
British Columbia is experiencing the slowly approaching end to its real estate market cycle due to astronomically high prices in the most expensive regions, Credit Union Central B.C. reported Friday.
In releasing its housing market forecast for the next two years, the agency predicts overall housing sales to drop to 128,000 units in 2007 from an expected 133,000 this year. Housing starts should dip to 36,600 next year, the report forecast, compared with 37,000 this year.
However, price gains are expected to continue, the forecast projects, with increases of six per cent in 2007 on the heels of 18-per-cent gains this year.
Provincewide, the average Multiple Listing Service recorded price is expected to hit $415,000 in 2007, compared with $392,000 this year.
Credit Union Central chief economist Helmut Pastrick said in an interview Friday that this represents "a gradual market adjustment" brought about by the affordability squeeze.
First-time buyers, the so-called low-equity purchasers, are being priced out of the market, which will reduce pressure on sales and housing starts, Pastrick said.
However, because the B.C. economy is still experiencing job, wage and population growth, sales will remain at relatively high levels and keep at least some upward pressure on prices through 2008, when he predicts price increases to slow to three per cent.
The cycle, however, is shifting. Pastrick said unit sales have been declining for the past 14 months, and housing starts have eased over the last seven to eight months.
Prices, he added, "are always sticky downwards."
"Perhaps we won't really see a negative sign in front of prices for the next couple of years," Pastrick said.
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Tuesday, 31 October 2006 |
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Downtown living works in Vancouver, B.C. -- but will it translate? By AUBREY COHEN
P-I REPORTER In March, the school board said "unprecedented growth" had overwhelmed space at its two-year-old downtown elementary school. "Elsie Roy (Elementary) is unable to accommodate the rapid increase in population in the downtown area," district officials wrote in a notice posted on the school's Web site. The need for a new downtown school and short-term alternatives were being discussed, they wrote. | |  | | |  | AP | | | Apartments and condos make up this part of the Vancouver, B.C., skyline. Many families live downtown. |
Of course, Elsie Roy is in Vancouver, B.C. Seattle has no downtown public school, and Seattle is closing schools for lack of enrollment. Vancouver is an example of a Western city that has managed to create downtown living that includes families. Gordon Price -- who was on the Vancouver City Council from 1986 to 2002 and is director of Simon Fraser University's City Program, which focuses on urban planning and living issues -- said his city has a long-standing culture of families living in apartments and condos in downtown's West End. He said many of Vancouver's more recent arrivals came from Asia and Eastern Europe, where more people live in apartments and condos. "You do have people who have been through several generations of raising families in high-rises," he said. |
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Monday, 30 October 2006 |
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West Vancouver is where I was raised since I was a child. Attending the schools Westcott Elementary, and Sentinel Secondary School. I have personally lived in the neighbourhoods of Caulfield, West Bay, the British Properties, Westhill, and Ambleside. Having lived in homes in all those areas gives me some insight into the minor differences of actually living there. Real Estate is not just the land and house, but the atmosphere and unique persona of where you choose to purchase. |
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Monday, 23 October 2006 |
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2006-10-23 October 2006 Update
A significant shift in the real estate market in Vancouver has occurred over the past 2 months. There has been a ton of new listings that have hit MLS lately so we are finally seeing a balanced market. This is very good news for buyers who have been too apprehensive to jump into the buying frenzy of this past summer. Not only are we finding homes for buyers but actually are able to negotiate on price again. What a concept! This has caused prices to dip slightly in the Westside condo market although detached homes still seem to be quite hot.
Where do I think the market is headed in the next few months?
I think we will continue to see more product hit the market for the next month and then new listings should slow down around the holiday season which is normal.
For buyers, this is probably the best time in the past 2 years to buy, not only because of the selection that is out there but also because of the cooling prices.
For sellers, gone are the days of listing a property for a week and getting multiple offers. Listings need to be priced correctly and average days on the market is now back to normal at about 30 to 60 days.
For more information about the real estate market in Vancouver, contact Peter Raab, Real Estate Agent |
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Monday, 23 October 2006 |
Developers face threat of over supply
A surge in home building in B.C. during a time of falling sales could leave developers out in the cold if the trend continues to the point where supply exceeds demand.
Tsur Somerville, director of the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the University of B.C.'s Sauder School of Business, said the situation in B.C. "does bear watching" in the wake of a Statistics Canada survey released Thursday that showed the value of residential permits in B.C. shot up 11.4 per cent from July to August, to $649 million, a $67-million increase over July.
In the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's region, September sales dropped 24.7 per cent from the same month a year ago. New listings in the region increased 11.4 per cent.
In the Fraser Valley board's region, September sales equated to a 23-per-cent decline from September 2005. Total listings increased 19 per cent.
Somerville said in an interview Thursday: "If sales continue to decline as listings rise and starts increase sharply, then you have to be concerned."
From July to August, Vancouver showed a 33.8-per-cent increase in the value of all permits, both residential and non-residential, from $445 million to $596 million, while Abbotsford posted a 65-per-cent gain, from $8.4 million to $13.9 million.
However, Victoria posted a 40.5-per-cent decline in the value of all permits, from $110 million to $65 million, although the value of permits in Victoria for the year so far is up 15.8 per cent over 2005.
In the non-residential sector, things were quieter in B.C., which saw a drop in the value of permits by 4.1 per cent from $325 million to $312 million from July to August.
Somerville said it's too early to say there's an oversupply of new housing in B.C. Statistics Canada measures the value of the permits issued, that is, how much each project would be worth upon completion, so some of the increases reported Thursday reflect higher construction costs, not just more units coming into the market.
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Monday, 23 October 2006 |
Retirement-home buyers going south
British Columbians are fleeing the high cost of recreational real estate by buying just across the U.S. border, a realtor in Birch Bay, Wash., says.
They are people like Burnaby's Duke and Carolyn Carpenter who bought a two-bedroom retirement home on a quarter-acre lot overlooking a golf course for $235,000 US (about $260,000 Cdn) in June.
"Around Vancouver you just can't get that," Duke Carpenter, 53, said in an interview Thursday. "In Sunshine Valley, near Manning Park, you could get a really nice log home for approximately that price but it would be on a smaller lot and usually in the woods."
Powered by a Canadian dollar worth almost 90 cents US, Canadians are eager to find affordable weekend retreats relatively close to home that will double as strong investments, said Mike Kent of Birch Bay's Windermere Real Estate.
Border hoppers now account for nearly half the business being handled by real estate agents in Blaine, Semiahmoo and Birch Bay, he said, matching a pace last seen for roughly four years after Expo 86.
King expects the 2010 Olympics to refocus American attention on the region and push up prices which are relatively reasonable today. He notes that there are more homes listed today for under $300,000 in Whatcom County than in all of the Lower Mainland.
Carpenter, who works as a background performer in the movie industry, said affordability and Birch Bay's proximity to Vancouver were the big selling points for both him and his wife, who is nearing retirement as a schoolteacher.
With a Nexus card for nipping across the border, they can be back in their townhouse in Burnaby with their 21-year-old son in less than an hour. He said they were also attracted to Birch Bay's sunny climate, the people, the variety of recreational options and the comfort of knowing that their recreational property is protected by a security guard.
"Proximity was the big factor," Carpenter said. "There are other places I would probably rather live, but they're a lot farther away."
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